Commentary On Q4 Market Performance
The price of digital assets rallied significantly during the fourth quarter. For the quarter, BTC was up +56.7%, S&P BDM Ex-Mega +91.9% and the Nasdaq +14.3%.
As a reminder, here at EXPAAM, we utilize The Everything Code – which is a proprietary, top-down, macro framework – designed to harmonize with EADAF’s bottoms-up manager selection process and risk-scoring framework. TEC is comprised of thousands of critical variables and outputs across liquidity, business cycles, confidence, crypto, and news cycles, which analyze and forecast economic conditions, relationships, and influences and their impact on financial markets.
Our leading indicators had been forecasting an imminent turn in global liquidity during the quarter. To recap, it had been on a sharp downtrend throughout 2022 manifesting in a decline in asset prices. This bottomed in the middle of 2023, and we anticipate the loosening of financial conditions to last well into 2024-2025:
This critical analysis allowed us to position the portfolio in a way that was primed to benefit when this cycle turned. Finally, anticipation of the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF drove optimism more broadly, a major milestone that propelled markets and opened the door for greater institutional investment.